MMA Compass Methodology: How We Analyze UFC Data

1. UFC Fight Statistics Aggregation

• Computes cumulative statistics for each fighter across all their UFC fights.
• Calculates various performance metrics such as strike accuracy, takedown defense, and submission attempts per fight.

2. MMA Compass Scoring System

The MMA Compass scoring system provides a comprehensive evaluation of fighter performance:

• Data Source: Uses aggregated fight statistics from a fighter's entire UFC career.
• Metrics Included: Encompasses a wide range of performance indicators, including:
  • Strike accuracy and defense (for significant strikes, total strikes, and strikes to different body parts).
  • Takedown accuracy and defense.
  • Submission attempts and success rate.
  • Knockdown rate.
  • Control time.
  • Win rates by different methods (KO/TKO, submission).
• Calculation Process:
  1. For each metric, the fighter's performance is ranked against all other fighters.
  2. These rankings are then normalized to a scale of 1-99, where a score of 80 means the fighter performs better than 80% of other fighters in that metric.
• Combined Scores: Some scores are the average of multiple scores:
• Global Score: A weighted average of the top 6 scores above.
• Striking: Average of total strikes attempted, significant strikes differential, and significant strikes landed.
• KO Power: Average of KO/TKO wins, KO/TKO rate, and head strikes per knockdown.
• Wrestling: Average of takedowns landed, control time, and ground strikes landed.
• Jiu Jitsu: Weighted average of submissions attempted (25%) and submission wins (75%).
• Accuracy: Average of distance strikes accuracy, clinch strikes accuracy, and ground strikes accuracy.
• Defense: Total strikes defense.
• Grappling: Average of wrestling and BJJ.
• Boxing: Average of head strikes landed, head strikes attempted, head strikes per KO/TKO, and head strikes defense.
• Kickboxing: Average of leg strikes landed, body strikes landed, leg strikes attempted, and leg strikes defense.
• Comprehensive Evaluation: By combining scores across multiple metrics, the system provides a nuanced view of a fighter's strengths and weaknesses.

Limitations:

• The scoring system is relative, comparing fighters to the current UFC roster.
• It doesn't account for the quality of opposition faced.
• Fighters with fewer fights may have less reliable scores due to smaller sample sizes. This is why the scoring system is not available for fighters with less than 3 fights.

3. UFC Elo Rating System

The Elo rating system in MMA Compass provides a dynamic ranking of fighters based on their performance over time:

• Initial Rating: All fighters start with an initial Elo rating of 1500.
• K-Factor: The system uses a base K-factor of 32, which determines how much a fighter's rating can change after each fight.
• Fight Outcome Calculation: Ratings are adjusted based on the actual outcome compared to the expected outcome. The expected outcome is calculated based on the fighters' current ratings.
• Title Fight Bonus: For title fights, the K-factor is multiplied by 2 (increased to 64) for the winner.
• Draw Handling: In case of a draw, both fighters' ratings are adjusted as if they each won half a match.
• Continuous Updates: Elo ratings are recalculated after each event.
• Weight Class Tracking: The system tracks which weight class each Elo update is associated with. A fighter's weight class is defined as the most common weight class of their last 3 fights.
• Active Fighter Consideration: Only active fighters are ranked. A fighter is considered active if they have fought in the last 18 months.

The Elo rating system provides a measure of a fighter's relative strength, allowing for meaningful comparisons across different eras and weight classes. It's important to note that while this system offers valuable insights, it should be interpreted as an analytical tool rather than an official ranking.

For those interested in learning more about the Elo rating system and its applications beyond MMA, we recommend exploring its use in chess and video games. You can find more information about the Elo rating system on Wikipedia.